Last week we had FOMC and we saw a huge move for SPY and QQQ off monthly and weekly support. QQQ back-tested the 21EMA on the weekly and has not retested support since 8/3 in which it rallied 50 points from trough to peak. SPY also came back to test the 5EMA on the monthly and 100SMA on the daily and bounced 14-points from trough to peak.
With upcoming weekly catalyst such as the ECOC event 9/20-9/24, META Connect 9/23, Trump meeting with XI 9/24, and AMZN Accelerate 9/22-9/24 this could be the push that sends us higher.
Going into this week, I am watching for SPY to hold 760 and QQQ to hold the 713-715 area. This is where we need buyers to show up if the uptrend wants to remain intact. QQQ has faced resistance in the 722-724 area, and I would welcome a back test with these upcoming catalysts to send us to 728+ as the bull case.
This week's watchlist will include META, AMZN, NVDA, LITE, AVGO. These major players continue to underperform the market while EPS are expected to increase YoY. Filter out the noise and paying attention to EPS will be the main driver going into Q4.
META:
690 continues to be resistance for the 3rd time. If we dip into 640 going into the event, I would be interested if buyers show up to play a run up and will more than likely be a sell the news. If we can breakout and flip 690 to support, then the move to 700+ looks a lot clearer. There was above average selling pressure on Friday. META connect is the catalyst 9/23.
AMZN:
Sold off its ER after posting spectacular numbers and nothing has changed about its' business structure. We were able to reclaim the 21EMA on the weekly with MACD starting to curl ever so slightly on the daily chart. At the very minimum, I am expecting a push to fill the upside gap at 256 with a further push to 259+. Holding the 250-252 area is key going into this event. Catalyst AMZN Accelerate 9/24.
NVDA:
NVDA continues to be THE LEADER in the AI space. We have gaps at 217 and 223. I am looking for a dip and rip scenario for NVDA to come retest 217 and push towards 223+. After their last ER we made a higher low and I expect a push back towards 236 by 10/16. Catalyst Trump and Xi meeting 9/24
AVGO:
Down almost 23% from peak to trough while EPS is expected to grow substantially YoY. The business mechanics did not change, market sentiment shifted. AVGO is necessary to the AI build out and they are one acquisition away from being able to cause a bottleneck in their respected space. It is trading below the YTD VWAP and this week could be the catalyst to push us towards 366-368. Watch how price reacts at these levels. Catalyst ECOC 9/20-9/24.
LITE:
The gamma map on this looks insane. I believe that we can see 1000+ if the event goes well. Photonics will continue to be a major player in the AI buildout, and this is a move that I do not want to miss. Price has consolidated in this range since 8/4, and this could be the catalyst ahead of ER on 11/10 to break us out of the box. Catalyst this week ECOC 9/20-9/24. Maps by On Sight Labs — Precision Market Research and Intelligence.
