$NVDA

Daddy Jensen is in D.C. this week for the Trump & Xi state dinner and a White House AI-exec meeting, with China chips and the “don’t slow down” agenda on the table. That’s the highest-profile policy tailwind NVDA can get. Huang is already the administration’s closest industry ally on keeping the AI buildout wide open, and any signal that export rules stay workable or that Washington is still in full-acceleration mode is a demand/multiple story, not just a headline.

The GEX map matches that tape: Friday’s 225/222.5 stack is a thick positive-gamma magnet (+30.8K / +24.0K), with 227.5–230 stacked green behind it. Monday has a short-gamma pocket at 222.5, so dips can get sloppy first. If the White House flow keeps bids in the name, that Friday shelf is built to absorb and pin higher rather than reject. Hold 220, reclaim 225, and 230 is the next dealer wall. BM's Bakery pick selection is built on this thesis.

OnSight Map

Chart Breakdown

$NVDA has been resilient and with their recent ER I expect it to continue higher barring any huge Macro events. As long as we hold the 217 area I am expecting a push higher. I am looking for a gap fill to the downside and push higher, Monday-Tuesday could give a prime entry.

NVDA sold off from the 228–230 supply zone September 4th into a midweek flush near 211–212 ending September 16th. Afterwards printed a clear RSI bull divergence off that low, then grinded back and closed Friday at 222.51. That reclaim put price back above the 218.02 level and well above LLVWAP at 217.18, so the bounce is structurally intact... The problem is location: 222.51–222.75 is the first resistance cluster, then 223.46 and the heavier blue line at 224.72. RSI also tagged two “Bear” divergences on the way up, so the last push is extended on the 1-hour even if the daily trend has flipped. IMPORTANT.

Into Monday that leaves a tight box. Hold 222.50 and the next magnet is 224.72 → 227.48 → 228.78, which lines up with the GEX walls at 225/227.5/230. Lose 222.50 and the first real air is 218.02, then LLVWAP 217.18. Friday’s close is sitting on the exact strike that was negative GEX for Monday and massive positive GEX for Friday. So this level is the battle, not a free pass. However, a bullish catalyst from WH meetings is squeeze team 6 fuel into Friday.

$NVDA Tailwinds

Last week’s bullish tape was not one headline. Jensen said Nvidia expects to sell twice as many chips next year, Vera Rubin is already in volume production with better inference numbers than the last rack, Musk restated SpaceX is launching Rubin class systems and building exclusively on Nvidia, and Huang is walking into the White House this Thursday for the Trump–Xi dinner plus an AI-exec sit-down. Street still sits with buy ratings and targets well above Friday’s $222 close.

1. Washington is a demand catalyst, not a regulation one

Huang is not a guest on the sidelines. He is in the room with Trump and Xi while AI chips and China access are on the agenda, and the White House line this month has been “keep building,” not “slow the models.” That matters because the stock has been trading the fear of a policy clamp, not the actual policy. If this week stays “America first on Rubin, still compete in China under licenses,” that is the best setup Nvidia can get: political cover for the U.S. buildout without a hard door slam on a still-useful export channel.

2. The product cycle is already shipping, not “next year maybe”

The double units comment only works if the next rack is real. It is. Rubin is in production, early MLPerf numbers showed a big jump versus GB300, and the official guide is still 70% revenue growth with “double if we can get the parts.” That is a supply-capped boom, not a demand stall. Add SpaceX locking the architecture and talking orbital NVL72 systems, and you have a new buyer class that did not exist in the last cycle. Nvidia is not waiting on a slide deck. The next GPU generation is already leaving the factory. ie. SHIP TEAM 6

3. The “AI is slowing down” story does not match the supply chain

The scare last week (FUD from gay bears) was safety talk and a call to ease off frontier models. The physical market did the opposite: HBM is still sold out, 2027 hyperscaler spend is still rising, and the next choke point after memory is already showing up in lasers and optics. That is what a live buildout looks like. If models froze tomorrow, rolling out what already exists still needs more compute than the world can install for years. Nvidia sits at the center of that queue. The stock can chop on headlines. The order book is still constrained by wafers, memory, and power, not by customers walking away. Bullish NVDA Q4.