View detailed thesis at the link below:
https://x.com/wassup61edt/status/2097906587385970705?s=20
TLDR (Quant / Macro)
Estimates keep chasing the print. Q2 revenue reached $16.1 billion, up 25% and $1.8 billion above the guidance midpoint. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.42 doubled the $0.21 consensus. This was the seventh straight quarter above guidance. Q3 guidance of $15.8 to $16.8 billion sits more than $1 billion above the Street.
Margins are the engine. Non-GAAP gross margin rose from 29.7% to 41.8% in twelve months. Operating margin moved from negative 3.9% to positive 17.2%. On a $65 billion revenue base, each point of gross margin adds about $650 million a year. TSMC runs at 63% to 65%. That gap is the earnings runway.
The entry sits below the sponsored price. Intel sold 210.5 million shares at $95 in August. Orders exceeded $100 billion. The CEO and his family bought $12 million at that price. The stock closed near $89 on September 1, about a third below its June peak. The mean analyst target is $115. HSBC sits at $200.
Washington is the largest shareholder. The US Government paid $20.47 a share for 9.9% of Intel in August 2025. That stake is worth about $38 billion today, more than four times cost. Section 232 tariffs, the January Taiwan deal, and the "produce in America" framework all pull demand toward US wafers. Intel is the only company that does leading-edge logic R&D and high-volume manufacturing on US soil.
The catalyst window is open now. Management expects firm 14A supplier decisions between the second half of 2026 and the first half of 2027. Apple, Nvidia, AMD, and the Tesla-led Terafab project are evaluating the node. Tesla has already committed. The next 14A design kit ships this fall. The Q3 print lands in late October.