SPX heads into next week with a fascinating macro/technical collision: the market is increasingly pricing a rate hike, while some economists are teasing a hold.
That divergence could make the September 16 FOMC decision especially volatile for 0DTE traders. As of Friday, Fed-funds futures were pricing roughly an 87% probability of a 25-basis-point hike, while a Reuters economist poll still had a majority expecting the Fed to hold at 3.50%–3.75%.
The Bull Scenario:
If the Fed holds, especially if the statement or press conference signals that policymakers aren’t preparing to tighten further, markets could interpret the decision as a reprieve.
But there’s another bullish possibility:
Fed hikes + market relief.
If the hike is already fully priced and Warsh communicates that it’s a one-off inflation response rather than the beginning of an aggressive tightening cycle, equities could actually rally on the news.
Technically, the roadmap doesn’t change:
7,664 → 7,696 → 7,716.
A reclaim and hold of 7,664 remains the trigger for calls.
The Bear Scenario:
The ugly combination is a hike + hawkish guidance.
That would reinforce the idea that elevated inflation requires additional tightening, potentially pushing yields higher and putting pressure on equity multiples.
A hold can also be bearish if the market interprets it as “not yet—but more hikes are coming.”
Technically:
7,664 rejection → 7,632 → 7,609–7,590 → 7,581.
The 0DTE Takeaway:
For me, 7,664 remains the line in the sand.
Above it: bulls have the advantage.
Below it: bears have the advantage.